Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season
August 04L.COLIN 91L.INVEST The wave behind 90L has been invest'd. NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:39, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :High risk now. This storm reminds me of Bill last year. YE 14:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::25 kts already. 9 hours till the moment of truth. Will it be Four? Atomic7732 17:26, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::It's up to 80% on NHC! I'm guessing a cat. 2 landfall somewhere in Florida, and the rest is pure guesswork. By the worst-case scenario, it could be like Georges 1998 but farther north and weaker. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:55, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::::I hope it goes further north and pull a Bill. YE 19:17, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::::::It's looking like... I want to give a hurricane name, but no track have I seen that is similar to what GFS gives it (and I have a vauge idea of some hurricanes since the 1980's cause did a hurricane track classification Cape Verde, Gulf, Central America... etc). HWRF gives it Tropical Storm status by the next TWO issuance. Atomic7732 20:23, August 1, 2010 (UTC) And GFDL gives it a minimal cat 2 on a Bill-like track. HWRF also runs a similar track, but brings it to a Cat 3 status. Atomic7732 20:25, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :Now the storm is looking more like a Fran than a Georges, looking at the long-range 12z GFS here. The storm is also expected to stall over the Gulf Stream, which could either cause it to weaken due to shear, or rapidly intensify due to deep continuous warm water and anomalies. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC) ::90% now... Atomic7732 23:48, August 1, 2010 (UTC) :::Or maybe it will be like Danny? YE 03:36, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::90%? Seriously? More NHC semantics. It's a tropical depression and they know it. NHC policy is they gotta make it stand up in court, but if there aren't advisories on this thing by dawn I might just have to file suit (Forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Before we break out the doomsday predictions, the models have been trending downward. GFDL, which just a few days ago made it a Cat 4 pointed at Florida, now for some reason doesn't do anything with it at all. Same with NOGAPS. HWRF no longer makes it a hurricane. GFS I think has a similar forecast. SHIPS likes it the best, bringing it to 70 knots in 84 hrs (3 1/2 days). I think CMC is the only other model that makes it a hurricane and well, it's CMC. So, bottom line, I wouldn't get excited just yet. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:26, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::It's been TD 4 in my book since yesterday. And... HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. :::::Yeah whatever... Atomic7732 06:09, August 2, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four 25/1006 now. Because it has TD winds I am assuming it is a TC. YE 12:55, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :Where are you getting this? It's still a disturbance on NHC and an invest on NRL. However, the defined closed circulation, spiral banding, and collapse of a central dense overcast-like feature into the preparation to form an eye looks to me like it's not far from tropical storm strength. This could become Colin very soon, and most long-term forecasts recurve it but the trough may weaken enough that a high pressure system either stalls it over the Gulf Stream and/or drives it into New England. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::The RBT. YE 14:33, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::Breaking News. It is official now! Yay! YE 14:38, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::What's RBT? Now it's on NHC. I'm predicting a weak cat. 1 landfall on Long Island based on the current track. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:52, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::RBT=best Track. See here. YE 16:22, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Kinda late don't ya think? This was Four 24 hours ago (not offically, but they know it)! Atomic7732 17:19, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::At first, it lacked a closed LLC. YE 19:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Still TD... Atomic7732 22:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::Still TD per RBT. Darnit. YE 02:14, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::::::looks like Ana last year YE 02:48, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::::::::Peak intensity 60 mph. Forecast gone has been shifted to the right. YE 03:01, August 3, 2010 (UTC) I am thoroughly underwhelmed by this system. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:04, August 3, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Colin Upgraded, Eric, I Dont blame you. This system is boring. YE 14:57, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :Named! --Patteroast 09:20, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::Watch out NHC! Get ready to be surprised. I think this thing has some tricks up it's sleeve. Atomic7732 16:17, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::Yeah, called the Great Tropical Cyclone Vanishing Act. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:53, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::Good point... Atomic7732 16:55, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::::dont worry, it is gonna be a fishspinner. YE 16:57, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Poof. Another dud. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:45, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::::::That was unexpected. YE 21:15, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::Told ya. Supposed to be post-tropical for quite a while... extratropical depressions are boring. You suck Colin. Atomic7732 22:00, August 3, 2010 (UTC) Remnants of Colin NHC says it may regenerate if it's able to get past the shear. We'll have to see. You know, for all the gloom and doom predictions for this season, it has been awfully dull since Alex. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:20, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :I know, since when do EPAC invests dont develop. Bonnie and TD 2 were nothing, and Colin was a dud. Last year, at lat of duds by at least they where not epic fails like Colin, Bonnie (which was really a though IMO), and Six-E. However, i am at least happen my predictions came true. But again I did not think we would have a hyperactive season just slighly more active than a 2009 or 2006 type year (which was a lot of fun). YE` 10% chance of cyclone formation, the remnants of Colin. Atomic7732 06:04, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :Unlikely, IMO. YE 14:51, August 4, 2010 (UTC) ::Up to 20%, it's looking more organized right now than it ever was as Colin. Atomic7732 17:34, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :::40% medium risk. Must be moving out of the shear, or the shear has dissipated. Atomic7732 00:03, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::50% now. YE 12:34, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::70% now... They're gonna name it Colin again right? And don't you think we should at least title this section Remnants?Atomic7732 17:57, August 5, 2010 (UTC) :::::::No neeed IMO, anyway, I think we will have a TS soon. YE 18:04, August 5, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::I agree. Colin is far more impressive now than it ever was. Most of the models seem to want to intensify it late, when it's up around 40N and at least the GFDL and HWRF both seem to have it as a tropical system at that point, which is interesting. GFDL brings it up to a major hurricane. HWRF makes it a marginal hurricane. The statistical models don't seem to enamored with the environment it's in and want to shear it to hell before redeveloping it late, possibly as an extratropical (forgive me "post-tropical") system. We'll see if Colin's able to pull an Irene (see 2005 AHS). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:51, August 5, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Colin It's back! Darned 99E, how did you let him beat you to it? Atomic7732 00:42, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :a 45 mph epic fail now, like everything else since June when you had two grates (Celia, and Alex). YE 14:57, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::Well, as the NHC said, the shear should decrease and there is a chance (40%) that Colin ''might strengthen to a 75 mph. hurricane before transition. Darren23 | 15:41, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::Remeber, the LLC is exposed for now. I say 40 at 5. YE 16:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::Recon plane should investigate later today, somehow, I think we are in for a surprise. Darren23 | 16:58, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::I dont expect much form this system other than minor effects on Bermuda and it makes JR happy- he goes storm chasing. YE 19:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC) Does JR live in Bermuda? If so, he will thenceforth be known as Lucky Bastard. For the record, this shear really sucks. I can't say I anticipated it being that bad. Those models better be right our this Colin comeback tour isn't going to last long. That said, the storm looks REALLY good right now. We'll have to see if this is just a convective burst or if the shear really is weakening. Colin has gotten a lot better organized since this afternoon. The last NHC discussion aluded to this possibility. Although I'm not entirely sure that qualifies as bad news for Bermuda. I don't think this thing will get any stronger than 65 knots regardless and it's gonna have to work to get there. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:28, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :no, but he could get impacted by extratropical Colin. But know I think it will be a plain old 40 knts dud. All of the stroms have been duds lately since Alex. YE 13:14, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::Dear God, Colin's done. Most of the convection has just dissolved over the past few hours. It really is quite shocking. Conditions are really quite favorable right now but Colin continued to deteriorate. All that convection just evaporated in a matter of hours. Go figure. But the last several model runs all called this. I thought they were exaggerating but they were dead on. It makes me think that there may be something to their lack of enthusiasm for 93L and it makes me more strongly question the severe predictions for this season. If this season is going to even approach even the low end of the official forecast, we're gonna have to have one helluva September. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:49, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :::TD now. YE 14:48, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::It's stationary, but some models bring it back to TS. The circulation around this thing is forcing another system south over Florida. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde Some models predict development out of this, it looks like a well-defined ITCZ-enhanced wave. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :I dont think so. YE 14:57, August 2, 2010 (UTC) ::Looks very impressive now. YE 16:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :::No mention on TWO. YE 02:47, August 3, 2010 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Invested, medium risk on the NHC. YE15:01, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :Strangely, although there's a shaded danger area on the 1-2-3 rule graphic, it's displaced about 10 to 15 degrees north of this... either way, the models like this storm and it has a very good chance of getting named and even reaching hurricane strength, all very far away from land. --Patteroast 18:39, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::Unless it duds on us... Atomic7732 18:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::Lests hope it recurves, if it does not this is a serious threat to the US. This could be another Ike or Gustav. I am really getting concerned. YE 19:26, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::This may be offending, but you just evacuate. That's all you need to do. You go back, and you rebuild. Or, better, don't rebuild, and live somewhere else. Atomic7732 19:32, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::So far, models are predicting a strong TS with a track recurving to the east of Colin's track, so no threat ''for now. Darren23 | 19:34, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::I am really hoping for this to recurve, is it me or it going to near the Lesser Antilles in about two days. YE 20:17, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Pretty much everything indicates that this will recurve WAY before getting close to land. Also, looks like the NHC fixed that 15 degree shift on their 1-2-3 rule graphic. :P --Patteroast 02:13, August 7, 2010 (UTC) Given the conditions, I'm very surprised by how unenthusiastic the models are with this thing. The most aggressive models bring it to 60 knots and only begrudingly. Most of the models also seem to want to tear apart Colin before it even gets to Bermuda. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:37, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :Up to high risk, 60%. --Patteroast 19:29, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::70%!! Atomic7732 18:59, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :::This system is developing nicely but its circulation is exposed. Reminds me of Melissa in 2007. This is what happens when you have a small or weak northeast-displaced Bermuda High. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:46, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::This looks remarkably similar to how Colin did. Still hanging onto 70% chance. --Patteroast 18:31, August 9, 2010 (UTC) :::::Hmmm... currently this storm has 35 mph winds, and somehow, GFDL predicts an 80 mph hurricane. 'Darren23' | 18:39, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Down slightly from 70% to 60%. --Patteroast 13:05, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::::::This could become a strong subtropical TS if anything at all. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:17, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::The convection seems to be moving SW. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:20, August 10, 2010 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AoI: Northwest of Trinidad Half of this system is over South America, but the 18z GFS predicts it will grab some moisture from the Southern and Central Caribbean before shooting up the Yucatan Channel for a landfall as a possible hurricane on the Texas-Louisiana border likely next Monday. This would be a bad scenario as parts of the Northern Gulf are 31C+ and only going to get warmer over the next six days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:58, August 2, 2010 (UTC) :Called it. I had my eye on that system yesterday. Atomic7732 00:44, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::I was about to mention that. I saw that GFS run, which had it as a non-major hurricane pointed right at southeast Louisiana. The 18Z NOGAPS run also develops it with a similar track, although less aggressively. On the 00Z run however, GFS doesn't do much with it, but I think that may be because its forecast track shifted further west into Central America. The 00Z NOGAPS run hasn't been released yet. Everybody's watching TD Four but conditions are favorable for this thing if it could ever get away from land. I hope this one gets invested so I can see what a the other models are saying and what track forecasts are out there. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:00, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::I think this is going to be a fish storm in the Pacific. YE 14:59, August 3, 2010 (UTC) :::::This could turn out like TD 2 did in the Gulf. Or, maybe just another one of GFS' ghost storms. However the long-range model has been predicting a Tehuantepec low, so stay tuned. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:05, August 3, 2010 (UTC) ::::::up to 20%Atomic7732 16:28, August 3, 2010 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Invest'd. As you say it. NRL's got 25 kts. still 20%. Looks FAIR (not as in TCFA)... but, needs some better organization. Atomic7732 16:16, August 4, 2010 (UTC) :Poof. YE 14:54, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::Unpoof. Not on TWO, but closed circulation, why isn't this thing a TD yet? And not even on the TWO? Please! What is wrong with you NHC?!?! Atomic7732 16:15, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::Um, how do you know that there is a LLCC? And TWO will be up in appx. 1 hr 45 min, and I doubt they would do a STWO. 'Darren23' | 16:25, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::I don't know what to call it!!!!! Filled center? Full convection? idk!!!!! Atomic7732 16:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::Looks interesting... quite well developed, but I don't know if it can get its act together before going over land. --Patteroast 18:35, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::say hello to Frank in about five days. YE 19:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Doubt it. Danielle/Earl has a better chance if it even survives the Yucatan (SHIPS strengthens it in the BOC), and its very improbable that it would even make it to the Pacific. 'Darren23' | 19:32, August 6, 2010 (UTC)~ ::::::::Frank? Colin's dying, and we have two invests? How the heck is Frank ready yet? Atomic7732 19:34, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Also, it looks like it has a chance at maybe avoiding the Yucutan. Atomic7732 19:39, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::Um, how? The center is just to the north of Honduras, and present movement is W to WNW. 'Darren23' | 19:46, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::This will be a tough call no doubt about it. If it organizes then we will have a cyclone similar to TD2. If it does not we could have another Estelle. BTW, when I mean Frank, I mean the next name on the Pacific. It should be noted Darren and I strongly disagree about this. No offense, but he just hates (he did not want Celia to become a MH for expample) the EPAC. Darren, I am so sorry if I misunderstood or offended you i am not trying to pick on you. Anyway, I think it will cross Guatemala, but I hope it does not happen. I do not want another Agatha. However, on its current track WNW it will strike Guatemala or Belize which is the southern Yucatan. YE 19:54, August 6, 2010 (UTC) Looking at the models, it seems there's a fair chance of this system making it over the Gulf of Mexico for a bit, but I wouldn't expect much of it in the EPac... there's a lot of mountains between it and the Pacific. --Patteroast 20:46, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :(Re: YE) I pesonally like the EPac, cause I live in Arizona so. lol We get rain from them sometimes. Last time was monsoons that flourished to to interactions with Jimena. Before that... I think Javier. Maybe a few others that I don't remember. Atomic7732 20:57, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::BTW, You forgot Julio. It flooded out some places. YE 21:09, August 6, 2010 (UTC) :::::What year was that? Atomic7732 22:13, August 6, 2010 (UTC) ::::::2008. Here in Nevada, it caused serous school problems, we were forced to wait in the gym before the bus came. We alos go rain from Lowell. YE 00:03, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :It's basically gone now after crossing the Yucatan. Trying to re-develop in the BoC but lost most of its convection. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC) 05L.NONAME 94L.Invest What have we got here? A frontal convective system forced south by drier air from the Carolinas to the Bahamas, and now moving SSW over the Gulf Stream. Models bring it across Florida and into the Gulf, but shear is high, so we could have a subtropical storm at the most. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :Meduim risk, now. Here comes the basins. YE 18:21, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::Hey, something came from this. It sure didn't look like much for a while there. --Patteroast 18:31, August 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Up to high risk, 60%! --Patteroast 13:04, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::It's setting up a nice circulation, and it has good vorticity and shear of 5 kts and falling. Only a little dry air to contend with, other than that, it's got 31C+ water that's still getting warmer. A track similar to Bonnie is forecast, but not much unlike Katrina either. Models predict a TS, but a few outliers bring it up to a hurricane. We'll see what it does. Interestingly, I had a dream about a tropical disturbance that started out much like this one did: moisture moving south from Ontario and Quebec, becoming a frontal convective system, drifting over the Gulf Stream against its flow and energizing over its warm waters, convection moving south over Florida, organizing, then tapping warm water from the Florida Straits before setting up a circulation over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, then drifting northwest and undergoing rapid intensification. This could potentially signal the rise to an active season. EPac could become quite active as well. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:24, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::This invest reminds me of Rita more than Katrina, it looks like it will head more west than north as of now, and when (Danielle) comes, she could pack an aufly painful punch for the Gulf coast, anywhere from Louisiana to northern Mexico. The oil spill is just north of this invest, and it will probrably miss it altogether, but it will probrably still delay BP's efforts to fully contain it. Either way, stay tuned, everyone. This could be a very serious threat to the U.S. Gulf coast, and I don't like the way it looks right now. Ryan1000 16:40, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::This does not seem like a major storm a weak cat 1 landfall at most. Dont forget we still have the shear that gave Bonnie a heart attack. However, the shear has weakened somewhat. YE 16:48, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::::70% now. YE 17:52, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::::What shear? The shear is 5 kt right now and still falling. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:34, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::::YE, Bonnie had an upper-level low right next to her when she formed, and that low pretty much tore her apart. There is no upper low by this invest, so it's gonna have a much easier time in the Gulf than Bonnie did. Still, stay tuned everyone. This could be a very serious storm. Ryan1000 20:10, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::::While the storm was crossing the Florida Straits it had an ULL following it to its west. Currently the system is disorganized but looks close to TD. It's basically going to ride the Loop Current upstream and create its own warm temperature anomalies that it will feed off of while it has deep warm waters on its left and waters up to 3C warmer than 2005's SSTs on its right. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:24, August 10, 2010 (UTC) : AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. Sounds interesting. This is a good storm. Looks like when Dianmu was 05W. So, I'm thinking next advisory (300 UTC) should be Five. Atomic7732 23:30, August 10, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Deperession Five There we go! #5 is on our hands, and it's moving northwest towards the gulf coast. Keep an eye on this one, everyone, its heading to the coast in the next 3 or 4 days. And we have some bad news, too, its hundreds of miles away from the Mississippi River mouth, and it is only moving at 6 MPH! We have a big problem, everyone. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 23:56, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :Yup, it's got LOTSA time to strengthen... It's at the point near where Katrina re formed... Batten down the hatches! This could be bad! Atomic7732 00:15, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::(edit conflict)NHC's only predicting a TS, but with SSTs up to 32C and a slow movement in an initial track similar to Katrina anything can happen. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:19, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :I think the NHC better revise their forecast on just 45-50 mph; at the speed it's going on, it'll take more like a week, not two days, to reach the Gulf coast. And based on how it's looking, it will not show signs of rocketing up to 15-20 mph in the near future, it'll stay at that 6 mph for some time. Brace yourselves, New Orleans, this one's comming right at you! Ryan1000 00:44, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::I disagree, this will only reach LA in about 48 to 72 hours. I say 50 mph peak, but this could be conservative. YE 02:24, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :48 to 72 hours could be all the time (Danielle) needs to become as much as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. And what's worse, this storm isn't passing by the mouth of the Mississippi, but rather heading straight into it. Hurricane Felix in 1995 threatened to ram North Carolina head-on as well, but turned away before making landfall. This one looks rather decent for a depression and, IMO, it's showing signs of rapid intensification. SkyFury, Astro, YE, stay with me, this thing could get pretty ugly. Ryan1000 03:09, August 11, 2010 (UTC) :::I seriously, seriously, seriously doubt that this storm would even reach 65 mph , much less MH intensity. The environment is just not favorable enough to rapidly strengthen it. And can you please tell me what signs or RI can you see? All I see is this weak, disorganized depression which will take a while to become a TS.'Darren23' | 04:21, August 11, 2010 (UTC) ::::It will likely turn out to be another epic fail. YE 12:58, August 11, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Eastern Caribbean An area of convection, seems to have a bit of rotation in it. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic Two significant waves, one south of 93L and another one west of Cape Verde. This could be our next invest. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:27, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :10% on NHC. YE 17:53, August 10, 2010 (UTC) ::This system is quickly moving directly into the Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:26, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::It's also got a strong upper-level anticyclone that's trying to catch up! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:19, August 11, 2010 (UTC) Official Atlantic prediction http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100805_hurricaneupdate.html NHC still predicts active hurricane season. Atomic7732 03:04, August 6, 2010 (UTC) Dead basin thing I don't have a clue why all of you are like, "Why are there so many duds?". While doing a classification of hurricane tracks, I noticed on all seasons that had a timeline, they all started booming up near early or mid August. It seems like what happens is, a few storms pop up... then it starts going in August till September... Then slows down in October... And dwindles off by November. Maybe it was because Alex was a cat 2 (which made Bonnie and Colin seem like duds), and because the EPac started booming earlier and then abruptly stopped. I don't know, and I really would like to. Atomic7732 01:41, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :The only year I can remember where people weren't saying things were dead over and over was 2005 in the Atlantic. It doesn't seem like it can be helped. --Patteroast 02:16, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::Lol hahaha! I see. Atomic7732 02:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::La Nina seasons are usually late activity starters, actually, I am not at all surprised we still at Colin. The surprising thing about Colin is that it formed during Downward MJO, so if storms can form during that, what would this season bring? 'Darren23' | 03:51, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::La Nina can be fickle. Most active years start kicking it up a notch right about now. 2004's Charley formed August 10 so we did get to the 'C' storm first but our 'C' is gonna be a lot less interesting than Charley. In the last La Nina (2008), we'd had five storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane by this point in the season, including Dolly, which hit south Texas as a Cat 2 on July 23. I still think this season's total is gonna be on the low end of the official forecast. Ever since Alex, the worldwide tropics have been quiet as a graveyard. I've never seen the West Pacific as dead as it's been, but they did pretty much have all the fun in July with two 75 kt typhoons. As I've said before, the epic silence in the Pacific does not bode well for the Atlantic. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:55, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::I'm very surprised we've only had 3 storms in the WPac. The EPac has been the most active NHEM basin this year! I have a feeling this years Atlantic is gonna be as weird, if not weirder than 2009's. Atomic7732 06:08, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::Colin is a dud like ever other storms since Alex. Rick on the other hand, is probably the best example of an epcic win. Extremely cold cloud tops, eye in a perfect circle, perfectly symmetrical, perfectly round, outflow even and extremely impressive on all quadrants. i agree,d with 78 the active cycle has ended or ending. But again, this is the time of year we get active, about one year ago the EPAC exploded. Storms just formed one after another after another. The ALT got active on August 15. YE 14:03, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::I think people are calling this basin dead because we were expecting a 2005-type season. Well, this year, we are probably still gonna get the predicted numbers, like CSU's 18 and NOAA's average of 17. We should see a bunch of storms in a few weeks because as I said earlier, we are currently in downward MJO. EPAC is currently upward, and thats probably why you saw Estelle. The point is, just because this basin has been average so far, doesn't mean its dead at all. Remember, 16 storms is normal for EPAC, so don't also think EPAC will have an above average season (last year was near normal, to give you some prespective). One more thing, the chances for a below normal season in ATL is 0% according to TSR and NOAA. There is about a 90% chance of an active season, and the predicted ACE numbers are leaning towards a hyperactive season, so don't count ATL out yet. 'Darren23' | 20:28, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::::Actually, last year's PHS was above normal (13.4 vs. 17, 3, vs. 6). Stop this, is it not going to be a hyperactive season, period, just 11 named storms. YE 20:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::1- This states that last year was near normal. #2- I never said it was, I just said forecasters are leaning towards it. #3- Most, if not all indications lead to an above normal season, and as I said, its just early August. I'm just trying to make sure people don't get their guard down. I will be happy if this season will not be destructive, but claiming that this season will be a bust with all the evidence presented is outrageous. I'm not saying its not possible that this season will be a bust, but I'm just trying to put some sense into some people who claim this basin is dead. 'Darren23' | 21:14, August 7, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::::1. It depends which average you use. 2. Ok 3. we just slightly below average so thats why i predcit 11 named storms. BTW, the EPAC will be similar (maybe identical) to 2004. YE Re to #1- Um, ok, but that was a credible and direct source which disagrees whith you, and would you please give me a link to your average? Re to #2- Please check all your facts. And 1 more thing, 2004 was El Nino, and is not a good analogue, and coincidences do happen. 'Darren23' | 21:59, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :Darren, it is in the EPAC book which could be downloaded here. it gives both averages 1971-2006 and 1949-2006. I like to use the 1949 one. Actually, many people are comparing this year to 2004 in both basins. YE 23:20, August 7, 2010 (UTC) :::2 people does not count as many BTW :P Also, both can be used, but the latest one is always better because it is the most accurate total average. :The only reason I'm thinking the basins are dead is, the atlantic has had no ''interest since Alex - and it's August. The Eastern Pacific has had their hot streak in June with the record highest ACE for that month, but followed that up by being the first season in 44 years with no tropical storms in July, and Estelle isn't so interesting either. The West Pacific had only THREE named storms so far - 2009 was much worse at this time of their year. I don't think that this season is dead, but worldwide, this season is actually less active than, say last year. The East Pacific is two storms ahead of the West Pacific (I only count JMA named storms), and the Atlantic ties the basin as of now.At this rate August won't look any different than July, and I just don't see anything forming in the basins in the next week or so, and I don't give that newly - named West Pacific PAGASA named storm much of a chance either. What I mentined last year was probrably right, we are in another deadened basin period like 1977 was. I'm actually shocked, at this time. I just can't look forward to NOAA's predictions coming true, this year isn't anywhere close to active - 2009 was well ahead of this, exept in the Atlantic. However, I can't assume I'll be right on this dead streak here. 2004 and 1988 didn't start until August and everyone knows how well they went. Even if we aren't active, it doesn't mean we won't be notable. 1992, 1983, and 1930 were three of the least active, yet most notable, atlantic seasons on record. It took just Hurricane Andrew to turn 1992 from a season of nothing to a season of something. 1983 was the 4th or 3rd least active season on record (excluding ties), but Hurricane Alicia made the billion $ mark in Texas, and still remains the most recent major hurricane to hit Galveston/Houston, Although Hurricane Ike certainly had the impacts of one, and for a season with just two storms (1930), the Dominican Republic hurricane really made 1930 a notable season. I guess a saying that should be considered in the Atlantic is: don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye?. Ryan1000 02:21, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Well, worldwide, this is gonna be a down year, but that's because the Pacific usually accounts for the bulk of the activity. As far as the Atlantic is concerned, this season so far is actually reminding me a bit of 2007: a lot of snub storms but when they do intensify, look out. That's kind of what I'm expecting to see, with maybe a couple of Cat 2s sprinkled in. It's still too early to rule out the official forecast verifying. 1999 had five Cat 4s, the first of which wasn't named until August 19. 1985, which saw six hurricanes make landfall in the US, didn't get to the 'C' storm until August 11. That said, the ATL, with apologies to 93L, doesn't exactly seem primed to explode. The next two weeks will give us a good indication of what kind of season we're looking at. If it doesn't get noticably livelier out there by August 20, I think it'll be extremely unlikely that this season exceeds 12 storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. And remember what Andrew taught us: it only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season. 1992 had just six storms, but one caused over $20 billion in damage. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 08:15, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::::Sky, I was sorta expecting a 2007 AHS-type year as well. I know what got us Estelle in the EPAC an anticyclone, and whats been shearing all the invests there is a trough. That trough is staring to lift , so we can get some storms. Last year around, this time the EPAC literally exploded. YE 13:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :I agree with you, SkyFury. We must wait until the heart of the season comes until we draw conclusions. If the next three or four weeks go dormant, by then i'm gonna be thinking there's something wrong with the tropics. That's not so likely, but if it does happen, then we are on a dead streak season. Only time will tell for the season. We shouldn't continue this discussion until we don't get any storms for some time. By then, we can pull up some record-dead records for the season, both here and worldwide. Ryan1000 15:50, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::West Pacific now has had five named storms and eleven depressions. The longer that a basin holds without any activity, the more that its waters will heat up. I expect a surge in activity in the Western Hemisphere around mid-to-late August. Some forecasts are predicting a strong La Nina lower than -3.0C, which would make it like 1998 in terms of the rapid fall from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina. Upward MJO could also get into the Atlantic in a few weeks. Here are my own revised predictions for Northern Hemisphere seasons this year: :**West Pacific: 42 depressions, 25 named storms, 14 typhoons, 7 "major" typhoons, 1 cat. 5, $6 billion in damage. :**Central Pacific: 2 depressions, 1 named storm, 1 hurricane, no major hurricanes, no damage. :**East Pacific: 17 depressions, 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $4 billion in damage. :**Atlantic: 19 depressions, 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $60 billion in damage. :**North Indian: 11 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricane-strength severe cyclonic storms, 2 "major"-strength very severe cyclonic storms, no cat. 5, $3 billion in damage. :2007Astro'sHurricane 20:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC) ::Speaking of predictions... I'll make mine for the Atlantic now... ::15 storms (TD's included), 9 hurricanes, 3 major. I haven't predicted much, so it just my guess. Atomic7732 21:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC) :: ::Considering how weve only had 3 deps so far i think 11 deps in total for the NIO wont happen. However if youre NS prediction came true it would be the most active season in terms of NS since names were introduced, and the most amount of NS since 2000.JasonRees 00:58, August 9, 2010 (UTC) :::I will hold off on making my final predictions for this season until the end of August. This has been the slowest start in the West Pacific since 1998, when the first named storm didn't form until July 8 and the first typhoon didn't form until August 3 (I'm pretty sure that's a record). If you remember, the Atlantic wasn't so quiet that year. When the Pacific is quiet, 9 times out of 10, the Atlantic is active and usually destructive. In 1998, Georges killed 600 people and Mitch killed over 18,000 and was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since the Revolutionary War. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:03, August 9, 2010 (UTC) ::I believe we can't really assume anything about us being so quiet right now; that 1008 mbar low in the Keys looks pretty ominous to me. I would think that the AHS will have 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors, with zero or one category 5(s), only slightly above average. About damages? 60 billion seems a little too high for an AHS, Astro. At best I would think that the AHS would have 20 to 30 billion in damage, but it's ''very hard for a season to make over 40 billion in damage alone, and only 2004, 2005, and 2008 have done that. I do think this season will be destructive to some extent, but not "over 60 billion dollars" destructive. I think we should keep an eye on that Gulf low, however. Ryan1000 16:34, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :::Ok, I have raised my ALT prediction to 12-6-3. However, i don think we will see many catastrophic storms this year, though we might have an Ida-type storm or two this year. However, I think the damages will be under $10 billion ( know people on WU call me wishcasters and downcasters for this , but I have a good accuracy). YE I do believe that ATL will eventually become more active, and here are my predictions for the basins (NS-Cane-MH-C5): * WPAC: 22-12-6-1 * EPAC: 13-6-4-1 * ATL: 16-8-4-0 And YE, I think there is a good reason they call you that. I am not saying that is 100% impossible, but a near normal/below normal season forecast is wishful thinking and not backed by current evidence, hence thats why they call you that. Darren23 | 16:51, August 10, 2010 (UTC) :Then why are all the storms these year since Alex have been epic fails. YE 17:12, August 10, 2010 (UTC) Like I said, YE, don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye? June/July aren't supposed to be active; 2002 only had 12 total storms, 8 of which were in September. 2004 had 15 storms, 8 of them in August. Give the basin time. It'll get rollin' at some point. It slowly rises from June to July, skyrockets in August, peaks at september 10, then downturns in October; there is a brief secondary peak by October 19 when the East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the Carribean, and lastly, slows down to the end of November. I think this season will be somewhat destructive, but nowhere close to 2008, even. Just be patient, everyone; this season will get rolling by late August into September. Now is not the time to let up, but NOAA's predictions aren't looking so true, I agree. Ryan1000 23:48, August 10, 2010 (UTC)